Asteroid 2024 YR4: Moon Impact Risk Assessment | NOIRLab's Gemini South

Asteroid 2024 YR4: Moon Impact Risk Assessment | NOIRLab's Gemini South

This composite image of asteroid 2024 YR4 was captured with the Gemini South telescope in Chile, one half of the International Gemini Observatory, partly funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) and operated by NSF NOIRLab. On February 7, 2025, using the Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph (GMOS), a team of astronomers took images of the asteroid (the hazy dot at the center of the image) through four filters. Colorful star trails surround the asteroid, showing the passing of time and the motion of the night sky in a still image. The observations allowed the team to determine its composition, orbital characteristics and 3D shape.

2024 YR4 was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS). At the time, the asteroid made a close approach to Earth, passing at a distance of just 0.017 astronomical units (approximately 2.5 million kilometers, or 1.5 million miles). Initial uncertainty regarding its trajectory warranted further investigation, leading astronomers to secure critical special Director's Discretionary Time on Gemini South for follow-up observations using the Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph (GMOS) on February 7, 2025.

In late January 2025, one month after its discovery, 2024 YR4 rose above the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) notification threshold of 1% probability of a future impact with Earth, projected for December 22, 2032. This potential threat gained international attention among the public and the media. With further analysis, the Earth impact probability then dropped below 1% in late February. While the asteroid will miss Earth during this encounter, there remains a few percent chance it could hit the Moon instead.

Interested in characterizing the now famous asteroid, the team of astronomers, led by Bryce Bolin of Eureka Scientific, used the Gemini South telescope in Chile, one half of the International Gemini Observatory, partly funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation and operated by NSF NOIRLab, to capture images of it in multiple wavelengths.

Learn about the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN):
https://iawn.net

Credit: International Gemini Observatory / NOIRLab / NSF / AURA / M. Zamani
Release Date: April 8, 2025

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